USA Hockey Memberships in Washington State

Happy 4th of July everyone. As a fun little holiday tie in, I figured I would like to share some insights on USA Hockey growth in Washington State.

Total Growth

As you should be able to see, we had a 2.6% increase in USA hockey memberships last year which coincides with our steady growth since 2002-2003.

When you break it down by age groups, you can see that a lot of the growth is coming from our lower age groups with a combined 6% increase for age groups 9 to 10 and younger.

all memberships WA State

Breaking it down further by isolating female USA hockey memberships, you can see huge growth percentages as more and more girls view hockey as a viable sport to play growing up.

female memberships.png

 

Stacking up the potential arenas

A lot has happened over the last couple weeks. In an effort to bring us all up to speed, I created this summary comparison and analysis on the current situation of our Arena options. Below is a table of everything that is known about the two options the City of Seattle has on the table. I want to preface that there are many unknowns on the SoDo Arena side of the equation. This analysis isn’t intended to be a knock against the Hansen Group. They have not formally revealed many details about their plans and intended proposal to the City; therefore I can only share what I know. Note that there are several components that I am selectively excluding because I feel they are minor to the bigger picture. I anticipate updating this table over the next several months as we hear more about both proposals.

arena matrix.png

Financing

Goldman Sachs has revealed that they feel comfortable financing up to $200M of the ~$500M to remodel KeyArena with MSG and other partners supplying the difference. I haven’t been able to confirm this, but LiveNation and the potential NHL Owners might be contributing to the KeyArena project, as well. I believe it was mentioned, but I can’t find any details which is why I’ve kept it off the table. For the SoDo project, JP Morgan published a letter of support for financing the SoDo project.

Potential NHL Owners

One of the biggest announcements over the last weeks was the announcement of David Bonderman and Jerry Bruckheimer. It is estimated that they are worth a collective $3.5 Billion. David Bonderman is a University of Washington grad. Jerry Bruckheimer is an JerryBruckheimer.2jpg.jpgicon in Hollywood and is known for producing TV hits like CSI, Amazing Race and wide range of movies from the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to Top Gun. He is also passionate about hockey. Maybe we can get him up here for the Ronald McDonald House Hockey Challenge this year. On the SoDo side, Hansen has not announced a potential NHL owner. The consensus is that he will need to announce a potential NHL partner to have a chance at evening the scales for SoDo.

Potential NBA Owners

OVG’s Tim Leiweke has made it very clear that the NBA is not expanding anytime soon. This was confirmed by Adam Silver and Steve Ballmer. If this is accurate, and I have no reason to not believe Leiweke, Silver, or Ballmer, then there really should be no reason to announce an NBA partner this far in advance. In SoDo, Hansen’s purpose is to be part of the NBA ownership group in his building. Most people I talk to in the sports business, estimate that an NBA team could cost close to $1.2Billion. The Hansen Group does not have that kind of money to be the majority owner and will need to bring in some big money to pay for a potential NBA franchise down the road.

Estimated Open Date

OVG and the City of Seattle have stated that a realistic timeframe to open the remodeled KeyArena would be October 2021. SoDo could be built on a quicker timeline, but acinside-Hockeycording to the Hansen Group, they won’t build until an NBA team is obtained. As stated above, there are no plans for NBA expansion; therefore this creates some uncertainty on when this project could be completed.

Strategic Partnerships

As part of the RFP response and the press conference, OVG identified several powerhouse partners in the global Arena Management space. The Hansen Group has not announced any strategic partnerships for his arena, primary because they haven’t needed to just yet. It’s also conceivable that some of these strategic partners could align with Hansen should the SoDo project emerge as the winner.

Key Local Support

It has been well documented that the Mariners and to a lesser extent, the Seahawks and Sounders, have not welcomed the SoDo arena proposal to their neighborhood. Therefore, it is no surprise that these teams have aligned to the KeyArena plan outside of their neighborhood. OVG has also worked with the Seattle Storm to make sure their needs and concerns are met should the KeyArena project be approved.

Summary

For all components in my assessment above, the scales seem to tip in favor of KeyArena. This might seem rather one sided, but only because we have the most information from the KeyArena proposal. The Hansen Group may or may not start filling in the blanks to help their chance of success.

Seattle Partners pull out of KeyArena bid process

Seattle Partners, a partnership between AEG and Hudson Pacific, announced in a formal letter to the City of Seattle that they would be pulling out of the KeyArena remodel process. On the surface, it appeared to be a surprise, but to those of us that have been following the story for a while know that AEG was on the cusp of losing the bid anyway. They could have bowed out gracefully, but they decided to take a scorched earth approach to announcing their exit.

The mayor responded to the letter with a statement of his own:

Ed Murray

Seattle Mayor Ed Murray

“It is unfortunate Seattle Partners chose to pull their proposal. As recently as May 19th, Seattle Partners stated in a mass email: ‘We applaud the City for executing a thoughtful public process. Engaging with teams from the City and the public has strengthened our proposal and crystallized our approach.’ We hope to continue our current relationship with AEG and look forward to addressing our path forward on KeyArena, as well as our commitment to engage the community, in the coming days.”

 

And then there was one…at KeyArena

That leaves OVG as the remaining bidder on the KeyArena remodel. It has been rumored that we were going to hear an announcement as early as this week. John Shannon from Sportsnet tweeted that OVG would be in town on Monday (the 5th).

Sodo and KeyArena

Assuming OVG can strike a deal with the City, this will now set the stage for a SoDo/KeyArena showdown that should really be interesting. There are so many differentoutside dynamics at play here; it is impossible to predict. Ultimately, I believe it will come down to the following questions:

Who has the money to build the arena? As part of the KeyArena RFP process, OVG needed to demonstrate the financial means to deliver on the project. Meanwhile, the Hansen group has not revealed how they are financially structured since Ballmer left the group.

Which arena group has support of the leagues? There has been a lot of speculation that Hansen does not have the support of the NBA, but that has never been confirmed by the NBA. Time heals all wounds, so if this really is an issue, it could be fixed. OVG’s CEO, Tim Leiweke has deep ties to both the NBA and NHL, so his relationships seem solid. That said, I expect the City of Seattle to be in contact with both leagues to confirm either or both potential arena partners have the support from both leagues.

Who has a potential NHL ownership group? Both groups have acknowledged that they are talking to potential NHL ownership groups and for all we know, they could be talking to the same groups. Maybe a bigger question is how much this needs to be solidified to decide SoDo vs. KeyArena.SeattleArena

Has Hansen done enough to alter the vote on a street vacation? Since the street vacation vote was denied by the city council last year, Hansen has announced his intent to pull the need for public financing. In my eyes, that is a moot point since the public financing was always tied to procuring an NBA franchise, which was not going to happen before the MOU expires in December.

How this all plays out is anyone’s guess, but it certainly feels like we are closer to getting a viable arena plan that can support an NBA and NHL team. Take that last sentence with a grain of salt, since I’ve said that before.

Tale of Two Leagues…and expansion

As both the NHL and NBA kicked off their respective championships series this week, it provided an opportunity to address expansion in the respective leagues.

Bill Daly

On Monday, NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly made some press rounds. I snipped this quote from the Yahoo Puck Daddy blog. 2012+NHL+Entry+Draft+Rounds+2+7+lyfx4JlSpv9l

“We kinda stopped holding on breath on new arenas in Seattle,” said Bill Daly, NHL deputy commissioner. “If something gets done and it’s a hockey-friendly building, does that make it more likely that at some point Seattle might be a likely site for expansion? Sure. But that’s in the future.”

As for Quebec, Daly said it’s a numbers game now for the NHL. There are 16 teams in the Eastern Conference. There are now 15 teams in the Western Conference. Expansion to Quebec would mean “further imbalance” for the League. “I think we have to address that before we can give more consideration to Quebec City,” he said.

Consistent with a lot of us in Seattle, the NHL appears to be in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode. That said, they are practically keeping a seat open at the table for us. But how long can they keep it open? Seattle is by far the best open market for the league right now but how long before Portland or Kansas City make the league an offer they cannot refuse?

Adam Silver

Then on Thursday, NBA Commissioner, Adam Silver took to the podium and was asked about expansion. adam-silver-donald-sterling

“From my standpoint, for the league, you want ultimately a league where 30 teams are in a position where they can ultimately compete for championships and also be economically viable.”
“From an economic standpoint, we are doing better than we did historically, but we’re still not at a point where we have 30 teams that are profitable. … I also have to look at the potential for dilution of the existing talent we have before we expand. I have no doubt at some point we’ll turn back to it, but at least in my last discussions with our owners on this, most of them said let’s keep focusing on the health of these 30 teams and the quality of the competition. When we feel we’re in a better place with the 30 teams we have, maybe at that point we can look to expand.”

This is fairly consistent with what we have heard for the NBA for years but most of us figured we were getting closer. This is probably the most specific the NBA has been on the topic and the first time I’ve heard them talk about the disparity in the league. Earlier this week, Rob Johnson was on the Seattle Growth Podcast and said that he hopes NBA expands to Seattle in 6 to 10 years.

All of this is inline with what we have heard over the last several years that the NHL is more than likely to come to Seattle first with the biggest hurdle being an arena. But you knew that already….

Seattle Thunderbirds are WHL Champions

Not much to do with brining the NHL to Seattle but as anyone who follows me on twitter or facebook, knows I love promoting local hockey including our 2 WHL teams. I thought I would do a quick shout out to our Seattle Thunderbirds on winning their first WHL championship in their 40 year franchise history. Tim Pigulski had a great write up of the thrilling game 6 of the Final.

Love seeing the twitter love for the Thunderbirds.

 

NHL teams got in on the action.

Even the Governor and Mayor offered up their congratulations…

Let’s not forget some Tbird alumni…

2 proposals for KeyArena RFP process

As you have probably seen by now, two groups have submitted their responses to the City of Seattle’s Request for Proposal (RFP) to renovate KeyArena into a world-class entertainment facility that could someday accommodate the return of the Sonics and the arrival of an NHL franchise. Seattle Partners (AEG & Hudson Pacific) and Oak View Group delivered some stunning proposals; exceeding most people’s expectations on what could be done with the KeyArena site. It would be premature to do so, but neither group announced any potential NBA and NHL ownership groups. I am sure neither league would appreciate implying expansion while both leagues have said (at least publicly) that they are not expanding.

Oak View Group

The Oak View Group is spearheaded by none other than Tim Leiweke who has a long and healthy resume working for NBA and NHL clubs. Most notably he was the CEO and President of Maple Leafs Sports & Entertainment, the parent organization of the Toronto Raptors and Maple Leaf Sports.

Their proposal:

  • Cost of Project: $564M
  • Square Footage: 660,000
  • NBA Capacity: 18,350
  • NHL Capacity: 17,100
  • Public Financing: None

Seattle Partners

AEG & Hudson Pacific have come together to submit a bid as Seattle Partners. If you recall, AEG is majority owner of the Los Angeles Kings and minority interest owner in the Los Angeles Lakers. Victor Coleman, CEO of Hudson Pacific, has been clear on his intent to bring an NHL team to Seattle.
Their proposal:
  • Cost of Project: $520M
  • Square Footage: 600,000
  • NBA Capacity: 18,113
  • NHL Capacity: 17,120
  • Public Financing: $250M in public bonding (They have recently backed off on this “suggestion,” so it is unclear the current state of this piece of the response)

Summaries

I cannot summarize the proposals any better than executive summaries themselves and a lot of the details have not been revealed, so here are some links to the proposals and the better articles I’ve read on those proposals.

What is next?

Brian Surratt, Director of Office of Economic Development laid out the evaluation criteria to the Seattle City Council and the timeline with the following slides:
KeyArena RFP Eval Criteria 2017-04-17

KeyArena RFP Overview 2017-04-17

My Take

Both proposals look promising and would appear to be able to bring the NHL to Seattle and bring the Sonics back as well. People still seemed concerned about traffic and parking but it is a very subjective piece to measure. Especially when you consider the traffic patterns will be shifting once the 99 tunnel is completed and the 2 additional streets open up. Additionally, the density is changing while car ownership decreases in more urban areas.  How the Mayor & City Council weigh all the pros and cons of KeyArena is anyone’s guess. I appreciate the evaluation criteria but it seems very unclear on how it all comes together. The hope is that one of these options will be recommended to the City Council. One thing is for sure, it is going to be a busy 3 months.